Standard Deviations: Where Market Trends Emerge

In business a lot of effort is spent exploring the middle of the market - whether it's understanding what the average person wants, or the mid-point of customer behavior, we search in the middle because it appears to offer the greatest marketing opportunity.

The middle has size, the middle has scale, and focusing on the middle fulfills a deep human desire for safety and security.

Like many other animals, human beings often gravitate to the middle of a pack during times of danger because in the middle they feel less vulnerable to predators and external threats.

This same pattern of behavior can be observed in organizations when executives focus their attention on the middle of a market whilst ignoring patterns of behavior on the edges. Being in the middle seems safer.

However, when it comes to discovering trends and opportunities the middle of the market is the worst place for companies to focus.

It's not from the middle of the market that trends emerge but rather on the edges, as standard deviations in behavior that eventually become the average. The edges are dynamic and niche but make no mistake, it's from the edges that trends emerge.

So if businesses want to become more innovative, they need to move away from the safety of the middle and invest more time exploring the edges. Because hidden in standard deviations are future market trends and opportunities waiting to emerge.

PS. Thanks Pacific Planning for bouncing these idea around with me last month.

Cultural Appropriation: Why People Hate Hipsters

“Hipsters adopt the styles and affects of many cultures; cultures which aren't theirs. Cultures which they don’t actually belong to… Other sub-cultures enjoy what they enjoy, and that is the end of the story… People see hipsters as devaluing cultural fashions by cashing in on their capitol without embodying their meaning.” - Mike Rugnetta

This is an interesting video posted by Mike Rugnetta on the PBS Idea Channel. It suggests that the social disdain for hipsters may stem from their blatant and condescending appropriation of sub-culture. If you have a spare six minutes, this video is worth a watch:

Instacode: A New Language for Digital Youth

“People show more of themselves on Tumblr. They don’t use their real names, or write personal stuff, but they blog pictures. I don’t do any written stuff because I don’t want people from school to read it… I wouldn't want them to read about my feelings and tell other people what I've been thinking… Depending on my day and how I’m feeling, I might post a dramatic picture of rain on glass.” - Digital Youth (2012)

For digital youth, participating online is a social necessity. While previous generations have the luxury of keeping their digital and physical lives separated, digital youth must stay continuously connected in order to remain informed and in-touch with their friendship groups. Digital disconnection = social death. 

However this continuous connection also means that any private conversation, comment or personal interaction, could easily be shared through their entire social network. Social success, or social distress, is only a click away.

Hence the rise of instacodes. The deep human need to express thoughts and feelings, without fear or social judgement, has given rise to a system of codes and visual metaphors that digital youth are using to express themselves secretly on platforms like Instagram and Tumblr. Instacodes let digital youth communicate private things in public places.

The Evolution of Self-Esteem

A few weeks ago while sitting in a cafe, I overheard two mothers discussing different ways to build self-esteem. Turning to her friend one mother remarked, "I'm trying to limit the amount of disappointment my daughter experiences, because it may be bad for her self-esteem."  

This conversation got me thinking about our modern approach to self-esteem: avoiding disappointment and criticism, providing only positive feedback, focusing on individual affirmation and positive self-talk.

Does this really build strong self-esteem, or can it result in a fragile form of self-deception? I thought this could be a controversial but interesting topic for discussion.

The Social Evolution of Self-Esteem

In contrast to popular definitions of self-esteem, evolutionary psychology views self-esteem as an objective assessment of social standing. In his book 'Evolutionary Psychology: The New Science of the Mind,' Prof. David Buss states that:

"Humans evolved in groups and needed others to survive and reproduce. This prompted the evolution of motivations to seek the company of others, form social bonds, and [gain] the favor of others in the group. Failure to be accepted by others would have resulted in isolation and premature death... Given that social acceptance would have been critical to survival, selection would have favored a mechanism that enabled an individual to track their degree of acceptance by others. This mechanism, according to sociometer theory, is self-esteem."

While popular culture suggests that self-esteem is individual, evolutionary psychology has explored the idea that self-esteem may be a 'barometer of social standing.' You could think of self-esteem like the warning gauge on your fuel tank, when your social standing gets low, your self-esteem should start to warn you.

According to sociometer theory, for an individual to build their self-esteem they must learn the behaviors that promote social acceptance. For example, when an individual undertakes actions that are socially valued (i.e. volunteering), they increase their standing in society (i.e. gain status), which can lead to higher levels of self-esteem.

The Challenges of Building Self-Esteem

In everyday life, sociometer theory provides some significant challenges and implications for building self-esteem.

Challenge 1: Learning which actions lead to social acceptance.

It's essential for people to learn which actions and behaviors contribute to higher levels of social acceptance. By learning the social skills necessary to make close friends (like reciprocity), or the behaviors that contribute to workplace success (like discipline) individuals can improve their self-esteem through social bonding.

Challenge 2: Learning when to fight and when to give in.

It's essential for people to learn when they are capable of beating an opponent, and when they should consider making an alliance or playing a subordinate role. By learning how to accurately judge their skill sets, intelligence and power, individuals can avoid unnecessary social conflict and play a more meaningful role in social groups.

Challenge 3: Learning how appealing your personality really is.

It's essential for people to learn which aspects of their personality are appealing to others, and which aspects should be managed or modified (i.e. learning to control neurotic behavior). Building self-esteem that is out of touch with social reality, can disrupt social bonds and may actually lead to disappointment and depression. 

Learning to Build Social-Esteem

If the sociometer theory is correct, it's possible that the concept of self-esteem championed by our modern culture may be counter-productive. In fact according to Prof. David Funder, building self-esteem "requires something more complex than simply trying to make everybody feel better about themselves."

Based on findings from evolutionary psychology, one of the most effective ways to build an individual's self-esteem may be teaching them how to build stronger social bonds. So instead of trying to build self-esteem, perhaps we should try to build social-esteem? Would love to hear your thoughts on this topic.

AIPMM - Digital Teens Webinar

This Friday October 26th at 9am PST, I'm excited to present a webinar titled, 'Digital Teens: The Drivers of Digital Behavior.' The Webinar will be hosted by Cindy Soloman from the AIPMM, and will provide an overview of our latest research on Digital Teens. The study, completed in June 2012, used qualitative and quantitative research to explore the online behavior of over 1905 Digital Teens.

For those of you who aren't aware, the Association of International Product Marketing and Management (AIPMM) is the world’s largest product marketing and management association, promoting “worldwide excellence in product management education, training, certification and professional networking.” The host of AIPMM webinars is Cindy Solomon, founder of the Global Product Management Talk, host of StartUPTalk Radio and organizer of Startup Product Talks San Francisco.

If you'd like more information on the webinar, please click on the link below:

- AIPMM Webinar: Digital Teens (October 26th)

Digital Teens - The Drivers of Digital Behavior

Over the past month, the team at Concerto Marketing have been conducting a study into the online motivations of digital teens. The study involved interviews and online surveys with 1905 digital teens, and provided some interesting insights into the online behavior of teenagers.

"The internet has multiple personalities. You can do multiple things on the internet… For some teens, the internet is their best friend, because they can have fun with it, they can connect with it. They can do whatever they want with it. It allows them to be whoever they want.” - Digital Teen (2012)

Highly Connected

To begin with, our study found that digital teens are highly connected. When exploring the personal ownership of internet enabled devices, we found that 79% of digital teens own a personal computer, 51% have their own smartphone, and 24% own a personal tablet. 

Selectively Engaged

However, despite their level of online connection, digital teens can be surprisingly selective with their friendships and attention. Our study found that the average digital teen had only 4 close friends, and considered 14 people to be in their social network. Furthermore, 97% of digital teens said they were happy with these friendships.

In terms of online attention, our study found four destinations that digital teens tended to visit on a daily basis: 72% of digital teens use search engines daily, 65% use Facebook daily, 57% watch online videos daily, and 30% play online games daily. In contrast, despite the media hype, 85% of digital teens have never used Pinterest, and 63% have never used Twitter.

The Drivers of Digital Behavior

Highly connected but selectively engaged, digital teens can be a challenging audience. So what are the drivers of digital teen behavior, and how can they be harnessed by brands? Find out by viewing the following Slideshare presentation:

Digital Teens: The Drivers of Digital Behavior from Nick Black